Estimation of problem drug users in Poland in 2009

In 2010, the Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology was commissioned by the National Bureau for Drug Prevention to estimate the population of problem drug users understood as regular users of drugs (illegal substances) who experience serious health and social harm as a result of using. The estimation was conducted by means of the benchmark method. The analysis covered data from the general population survey of 2010 and the drug treatment records of 2009.

The data for estimation was collected by means of snowball sampling in the course of the 2010 general population survey. The respondents were asked to nominate from their social networks individuals whom they considered problem drug users and then specify whether these individuals sought residential or ambulatory drug treatment in 2009. Consequently, it was possible to conduct the estimation by juxtaposing the data obtained in the abovementioned manner with drug treatment records for 2009. The estimation for 2009 reveals a fall in the number of problem drug users compared to 2005. It can be assumed that the number of problem drug users ranges from 56 000 to 103 000 (in the 2005 estimation this range was 100 000 – 127 000).

The national survey conducted in 2010 also served as the basis for the estimation of problem opioid users. The Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology (Sierosławski, J. Oszacowanie liczby problemowych użytkowników opioidów w Polsce. Alkoholizm i Narkomania 2012, Tom 25, nr 4, 347-356) estimated that the overall number of problem opioid users fell within the range of 10 444 - 19 794 (2009 data). The median value stood at 15 119. This calculation also shows that the highest number of opioid user was recorded in the province of mazowieckie (4 760) followed by the provinces of dolnoslaskie (1 888) and slaskie (1 181). The lowest figures were recorded in the provinces of opolskie (168), swietokrzyskie (185) and podkarpackie (254).

Estimation of problem drug users in Poland in 2005

In 2007 Department of Alcoholism and Polydrug Use Studies of the Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology upon commission of the National Bureau for Drug Prevention under the research project entitled “Prevalence estimate of problem drug use, analysis of drug use patterns and related problems. Qualitative study” carried out analyses aimed at estimating the population of problem drug users in Poland

Definition

Problem drug users were defined as individuals addicted to or regularly using illegal substances in a way causing serious problems. Regular drug use was understood as long-term daily or nearly daily consumption. The definition applied complied with the ICD-10 definition and it is broader than the EMCDDA definition because the basic criterion is the problematic nature of drug use. It does not mention the type of substance or route of administration as the including/excluding criterion. Applying such a definition is partly necessitated by available data sources for estimation (drug treatment data)

Method

The estimate was based on the benchmark method. Data were collected through the snowball technique under the general population study. The study participants were asked to list all individuals they knew who used drugs in a problematic way and then define certain characteristics of these individuals such as a drug used, entering drug treatment in the last year, being detained by the Police, HIV infection or drug-related death. Results of the field work (population study in this respect) a ratio of individuals sharing a given characteristic to the people who do not demonstrate it. Then an estimation indicator is created which is later multiplied by the reference number i.e. numbers of individuals who share a given feature in a given year in statistical systems (e.g. number of drug-related deaths, number of people in drug treatment, etc.). Reference numbers adopted in the study in question included data from inpatient and outpatient treatment.

Results

In the course of general population studies conducted in 2006 it was determined that out of all the nominees the number of people outside treatment is over six and a half times higher compared to those remaining in treatment (6.57 times for inpatient treatment and 6.48 for outpatient treatment) (see Table 1).

Table 1. Benchmark method-based prevalence estimate of problem drug use through application of 2006 general population study chain referrals and treatment statistics

Source: “Prevalence estimate of problem drug use, analysis of drug use patterns and related problems. Qualitative study” (2007) Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Based on the estimation indicator and data from inpatient and outpatient treatment the population of problem drug users ranged from 100 000 to 125 000. Then by means of the same methodology prevalence of drug use by opiates and other substances was estimated. (Table 2).

Table 2. Prevalence estimate of problem drug use in Poland by opiates and other drugs

Source: “Prevalence estimate of problem drug use, analysis of drug use patterns and related problems. Qualitative study” (2007) Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology

As the analyses show the population of users of drugs other than opiates ranges from 71 900 to 98 500. The population of problem opiate users was estimated at 25 000 – 29 000. The estimate by drugs yielded the overall population of problem drug users at 97 000 – 127 000.

Summing up, it should be assumed that the population of problem drug users ranges from 100 000 to 127 000 and the population of opiate users stands at 25 000 - 29 000.